Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race

Posted on October 19, 2026 in entertainment

Frontrunners
1. Spain — La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND
2. Romania/Automatic entry via Cannes Film Festival’s Palme d’Or — Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, LOND
3. South Korea — Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23) VENI, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND, AFI
4. Japan — All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) CANN, KARL, TIFF, NYFF, LOND, AFI
5. France — Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND

Major Threats
6. Austria — Rose (MUBI, Dec. 11, THR review) BERL, KARL, TELL, NYFF, LOND, AFI
7. Poland — Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) CANN, KARL, TELL, NYFF, SANS, ZURI, LOND
8. Belgium — Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) CANN, KARL, TIFF, SANS, LOND
9. United Kingdom — Rehearsals for a Revolution (Sony Classics, Dec. 4, THR review) — Pegah Ahangarani CANN, KARL, TELL, TIFF, DNYC, AFI, CCDA

Still to See or Under Embargo
Automatic entry via Sundance Film Festival’s World Cinema Grand Jury Prize (Dramatic) — Shame and Money (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) SUND
Automatic entry via Berlin Film Festival’s Golden Bear — Yellow Letters (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) BERL, KARL, AFI
Automatic entry via Busan Film Festival’s Grand Prize — Midday Meal (self-distributed, TBD) — Majid Majidi
Albania — A State Film (Cinecittà, TBD) VENI (’25)
Algeria — Roqia (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)
Armenia — In the Land of Arto (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)
Australia — First Light (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Bangladesh — Roid (Bioskope, TBD)
Bolivia — The Condor Daughter (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25)
Bosnia and Herzogovina — The Widower (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Brazil — Gugu’s World (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Bulgaria — The Dreamed Adventure (Janus, TBD) CANN, TIFF, ZURI, LOND
Cambodia — Becoming Human (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25), LOND (’25)
Cameroon — Mabanda (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Canada — Nina Roza (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD, THR review) BERL, AFI
Chad — Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Chile — The Meltdown (Kino Lorber, TBD, THR review) CANN
China — Once Upon a Time in the Middle East (Oct. 9, Well Go USA)
Colombia — Rains Over Babel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUND (’25)
Costa Rica — If We Don’t Burn, How Do We Light Up the Night (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Croatia — God Will Not Help (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)
Cuba — Malecón (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Cyprus — Hold onto Me (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUND
Czech Republic — If Pigeons Turned to Gold (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERL, KARL
Democratic Republic of the Congo — Rumba Royale (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Denmark — Woman Unknown (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFF, LOND
Dominican Republic — Melodrama (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Ecuador — The Ivy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)
Egypt — The Stories (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
El Salvador — Vertices (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Estonia — Our Erika (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Finland — The Squirrel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Georgia — Guria (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI
Germany — Everytime (1-2 Special, TBD, THR review) CANN, TIFF, NYFF, ZURI, LOND, AFI
Greece — Broken Vein (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Guatemala — Mountains of Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Hong Kong — Sons of the Neon Night (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN (’25), ZURI (’25)
Hungary — Silent Friend (1-2 Special, May 8) VENI (’25), TIFF (’25), ZURI (’25), LOND (’25), AFI (’25)
Iceland — The Ground Beneath Our Feet (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
India — Gondhal (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Indonesia — Four Seasons in Java (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF
Iran — The Land of Angels (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Iraq — No Paradise If You Are Killed by a Woman (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI
Ireland — Aontas (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Israel — Tell Me Everything (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) SUND
Italy — The Spiral (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFF
Jordan — Sink (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25), LOND (’25)
Kazakhstan — Abel (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Kenya — One Woman One Bra (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25), LOND (’25), TRIB
Kosovo — Dua (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, ZURI
Kyrgyzstan — Kassandra (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Latvia — Ulya (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN
Lebanon — Furies (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, TIFF, LOND
Lithuania — How to Divorce During the War (Kino Lorber, Aug. 21) SUND, KARL, ZURI
Luxembourg — Child (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Malaysia — The Fox King (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF (’25)
Malta — Żejtune (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TRIB
Mexico — On the Road (Strand, Oct. 28, THR review) VENI (’25)
Mongolia — Independence: Keeper of the Prophecy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Montenegro — To Hold a Mountain (Submarine, Dec. 16) SUND, LOND
Morocco — Strawberries (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN
Nepal — Elephants in the Fog (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, KARL, TIFF, LOND, AFI
Netherlands — Paikar (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Nigeria — Dear Ajayi (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI
North Macedonia — 17 (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERL
Norway — Growth of the Soil (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) TIFF
Pakistan — Hanging by a Wire (Abramorama, Aug. 28) SUND, TRIB
Palestine — Citizen Osama (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI, AFI
Panama — Chichero (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Peru — Night Has Come (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) KARL (’25)
Philippines — Filipiñana (Kino Lorber, Aug. 28) SUND, BERL, KARL, LOND
Rwanda — Ben’lmana (Alexander, TBD) CANN, KARL, TIFF, LOND, AFI
Saudi Arabia — A Matter of Life and Death (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Senegal — The Attachment (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Serbia — Wanderlust (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Singapore — We Are All Strangers (Film Movement, TBD) BERL, TIFF, AFI
Slovakia — Flood (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Slovenia — Fantasy (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOCA (’25)
South Africa — Variations on a Theme (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) LOND
Sri Lanka — Riverstone (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Sweden — Adult Supervision (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Switzerland — Who Is Still Alive (Watermelon, TBD) VENI (’25), LOCA
Syria — The Other Side of the Sun (Icarus, TBD) BERL
Taiwan — A Foggy Tale (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Thailand — 9 Temples to Heaven (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, NYFF, LOND, AFI
Turkey — Like a Limbless Tree (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD)
Ukraine — Traces (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) BERL, DNYC
Uruguay — A Loose End (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) VENI (’25)
Venezuela — Death Has No Master (still seeking U.S. distribution, TBD) CANN, LOCA
Vietnam — Spirit Guardians: The Last Secret of the First Emperor (Papaian, TBD) TIFF