Sweden general election: centre-left opposition bloc set to win, exit polls project – Europe live

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Exit poll suggest comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats - snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, the opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – that’s close to the best pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should comfortably win the election.

Surely the poll can’t be that wrong?

Another immediate talking point is the result of the Sweden Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not the TV4 poll, mind), they only come third, falling behind the PM Kristersson’s Moderates.

Quite a counter to the narrative about the far-right being on march across Europe.

Key events

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

By the way, you can tell that Swedes love their Eurovision and TV shows: their exit polls don’t give you the projected results for all parties at once, but give them one by one, which means you don’t know what it means for the full picture until all of them come in.

(wipes sweat from his forehead)

Social Democrats could lead the opposition to power despite historically poor result – snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

There is certain irony in the fact that the Social Democrats could lead the opposition to power despite actually losing support compared to 2022 (28.4% in both exit polls, compared to 30.3% at the last election) and dipping below 30%.

Despite pre-election scare, Liberals on course to be in new parliament – snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

While the Liberals had reason to worry about whether they would make the new parliament, both exit polls show them firmly above the 4% threshold.

It’s not entirely clear to what extent that’s due to tactical voting from other “blue” parties, but they will be happy with the result anyway.

Exit poll suggest comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats - snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, the opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – that’s close to the best pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should comfortably win the election.

Surely the poll can’t be that wrong?

Another immediate talking point is the result of the Sweden Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not the TV4 poll, mind), they only come third, falling behind the PM Kristersson’s Moderates.

Quite a counter to the narrative about the far-right being on march across Europe.

SVT/Valu poll: Opposition parties with majority in new parliament

The SVT/Valu exit poll gives the opposition 183 seats in the new parliament to 166 for the current government and the Sweden Democrats.

TV4 poll: Social Democrats to win, opposition to take power in Sweden

TV4 poll:

Social Democratic Party (S) 28.4%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 18.5%
Moderates (M) 17.5%
Centre Party (C) 9.0%
Green Party (MP) 7.0%
Left Party (V) 6.9%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.0%
Liberals (L) 5.0%

When you quickly add it up, it puts the left-wing opposition bloc at 51.3%, well ahead of the right-wing government bloc at 47.0%.

SVT/Valu poll: centre-left opposition bloc set to win election

SVT/Valu poll:

Social Democratic party (S) 28.4% (-1.9%)
Moderates (M) 18.1% (-1%)
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.2% (-3.3%)
Left Party (V) 8.0% (-1.3%)
Centre Party (C) 7.5% (+0.8%)
Green Party (MP) 7.4% (+2.3%)
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.1% (+0.8%)
Liberals (L) 5.4% (+0.8)

That puts the left-wing opposition block at 51.3% with 46.8% for the right-wing government parties.

Change of government is on cards.

Exit poll: Social Democrats to win in Sweden

STV/Valu poll says opposition Social Democratic party is projected to win with 28.4% of the vote.

But we sort of knew that.

Let’s wait for the full numbers for all parties.

Exit polls imminent

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

The two exit polls – for Swedish public broadcaster SVT and private broadcaster TV4 – are expected imminently.

Swedish prime minister and leader of the centre-right party Moderaterna, Ulf Kristersson, votes during the general election in Strangnas, Sweden.
Swedish prime minister and leader of the centre-right party Moderaterna, Ulf Kristersson, votes during the general election in Strangnas, Sweden. Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters

The SVT’s poll in particular is a bit of an institution in Sweden. You can see the form that voters are asked to complete here.

But, as usual, a quick health warning that usually comes with any exit poll: given just how tight the margins are expected to be, we should take these numbers with a pinch of salt.

After all, in 2022 the exit polls showed the left-wing bloc narrowly ahead, only for the actual results to eventually show the opposite outcome.

“These polling organisations are constantly tweaking their sampling to try to get it right. Everything’s changing all the time. The way we consume news, the way we communicate about politics with each other. So these pollsters are trying to hit a moving target the whole time,” Nicholas Aylott of Södertörn University in Stockholm tells me.

So keeping in mind all of that, let’s see what they show.

Ready?

15 minutes to go

People vote at a polling station in Stockholm, Sweden.
People vote at a polling station in Stockholm, Sweden. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

Arriving at her election night, Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson says it has been an “intense” campaign, and adds “there are still a few minutes left to choose a new direction.”

“Change is within reach,” she says.

Supporters of Sweden's Social Democratic party wait for the early results of the general election at Waterfront center, in Stockholm, Sweden.
Supporters of Sweden's Social Democratic party wait for the early results of the general election at Waterfront center, in Stockholm, Sweden. Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters

Arriving at his Moderate party’s election night, prime minister Ulf Kristersson said it has been “a fantastically enjoyable campaign” of “hard work … and great enthusiasm.”

He would say that, right?

But he also says he is “confident” as the party has had “the wind in our sails for several weeks now.”

“Now it’s up to the Swedish people to decide,” he says.

Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson arrives at the Moderate Party's election night watch party in central Stockholm.
Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson arrives at the Moderate Party's election night watch party in central Stockholm. Photograph: Christine Olsson/EPA

How the far-right changed Sweden's conversation on migration

Ashifa Kassam

Ashifa Kassam

European community affairs correspondent

The Swedish polls have narrowed in recent weeks making many nervous, particularly as the right-leaning ruling coalition has for the first time said it would offer ministerial posts to the far right if it wins.

People wait in line at a polling station in Rosengård, Sweden to give their vote.
People wait in line at a polling station in Rosengård, Sweden to give their vote. Photograph: Johan Nilsson/TT/Shutterstock

Those who have borne the brunt of the far right’s time propping up the government worry that Sweden, long held up as a leading light when it comes to equality and freedom, may have been irrevocably changed, regardless of what happens on Sunday.

“It’s a kind of Pandora’s box that has been opened,” said Munir Niazi.

During the government of the centre-right prime minister Ulf Kristersson, the far-right Sweden Democrats have used their leverage to steer policies on migration and crime, seizing on the spotlight to spread rhetoric linking the two and scapegoating migrants, Muslims and other minorities for all that ails the country.

The result had shifted Sweden’s national conversation to the right, said Niazi.

“In the past four years, the biggest opposition party, the Social Democrats, have slowly adopted and even voted with the right wing on migration, on crime. In the near future, at least, we don’t see the country going back to the policies of the 80s and 90s.”

The changes to immigration policy, including recently introduced rules barring most asylum seekers from accessing permanent residency, were an example of how the political conversation in Sweden had been transformed by the far right’s time as power-brokers, said journalist Bilan Osman.

Among those caught up in the crackdown on asylum seekers was an undocumented 14-year-old who, despite being born in Sweden, was facing deportation to Armenia, along with his single-parent mother and his younger brother. “It’s like hell. I’ve been here my whole life,” he told the Guardian. “I feel Swedish.”

30 minutes until polls close

Voters cast their ballots at a polling station inside the Swedish Parliament in Stockholm on election day.
Voters cast their ballots at a polling station inside the Swedish Parliament in Stockholm on election day. Photograph: Joel Lindhe/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

Sweden needs 'new direction,' opposition leader Andersson says

Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson, voted on Sunday morning in the Stockholm suburb of Nacka, and said the campaign had been “a tale of two sides”.

Sweden’s Social Democratic party leader Magdalena Andersson gives an interview as her husband, Richard Friberg, looks on in front of a polling in Nacka during Sweden’s general election.
Sweden’s Social Democratic party leader Magdalena Andersson gives an interview as her husband, Richard Friberg, looks on in front of a polling in Nacka during Sweden’s general election. Photograph: Stefan Jerrevang/TT News Agency/AFP/Getty Images

“There have been a lot of lies and bickering, but at the same time there are so many sensible people out there across the country,” she told SVT. “The focus is on winning and setting a new direction for Sweden.”

“We’ve become a harder society, a quieter ​society, but also a poorer society as we’ve had growth far below our potential and where households see their paychecks buy less and less,” she told Reuters.

Separately, Abba’s Benny Andersson showed his support for the Social Democrats’ leader by performing a reworked version of Mamma Mia to supporters at the party’s headquarters, replacing the words “Mamma Mia” with “Magdalena”.

Abba’s Benny Andersson remixes ‘Mamma Mia’ hit at Social Democrat election day rally – video